By: KENNETH MAXWELL

Folha de São Paulo - Op-ed section - page A2   

George W. Bush is now a "lame duck" as the saying goes. That is to say much of his political power has ebbed away as Americans look ahead to a new presidency next year. But it is important to remember that Bush has still almost a year to go before he leaves the most powerful office on earth. He still exercises the powers of commander in chief. He can still make trouble.

All of which makes it certain that if Bush gets the chance to strike out again unilaterally to reassert his authority he undoubtedly will. On any question of domestic policy the president needs congressional collaboration, as was evident with the economic stimulus package negotiated with the Democratic leadership in the House of Representatives last week to address the threat of a US recession. But the US president is much less restrained by the constitution on foreign policy matters. Intrinsically, therefore, it is more likely to be a foreign crisis that galvanizes a "lame duck" like Bush.

So where will the next foreign crisis occur? Not, I suspect, where all the pundits attention is now focused, that is on "Islamic fundamentalism" as the Republican front runner in the presidential campaign, Senator John McCain, has defined the great challenge of the 21st Century. In fact, the parameters of that unfinished business are well defined: The continuing threat from al-Qaeda; the insurgency in Iraq; the endless crisis in Palestine; the confrontation with Iran; instability in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

But there is a predicable crisis in the making closer to home; one which will have a major impact in Latin America, one where the U.S. is locked into an inflexible policy with powerful domestic constituencies ready to pounce, especially in an election year, and where the clock on the time bomb is already ticking. That Bush "opportunity" may arise in Cuba.

There are two inevitabilities in all this. One is the certainty that Bush will leave office in January '09. The other is that Castro will die. The uncertainty is whether Fidel Castro dies before January '09 or outlives the Bush presidency. Castro has survived every U.S. presidency since 1959 and with luck he will do so again. But if Castro dies while Bush is in office and in the midst of an U.S. presidential election year expect no end of trouble.

KENNETH MAXWELL is a weekly op-ed columnist (every Thursday) for Folha de São Paulo, Brazil's leading newspaper.