By: KENNETH MAXWELL

Folha de São Paulo - Op-ed section - page A2 

Fidel Castro remains the joker in the pack. He knows that no candidate in the midst of the U.S. presidential election will want to commit themselves to major changes in U.S. policy towards Cuba, especially while Florida remains in contention, as it will through November. Thus, by resigning as head of state this Tuesday, Castro continues to confound his enemies and puts Cuba back on the international agenda.

The Cuban experts are confused by all this; not unlike the old "Kremlinologists" who were famously unprepared when the Soviet system imploded. One famous Kremlinologist I knew at the time when asked about the role of the dissidents, said he "never talked to them," which explains at lot!

But will the transition be as quiet as the experts believe? There a two models of succession from long term dictatorships worth considering: Spain and Portugal in the 1970s. In Portugal, the old dictator Salazar died and was succeeded by a long term collaborator, Marcelo Caetano. But Caetano was too timid. He did not end Portugal's colonial wars in Africa, and he did not reach out to the moderate democratic forces within Portuguese society who wanted to help him modernize the economy and institutions of Portugal. Within five year the whole edifice of the regime collapsed and political and social chaos ensued. In Spain, Francisco Franco also died of natural causes. The old dictator had set institutional procedures in place to perpetuate his regime. But his chosen successor, King Juan Carlos, did not follow the script. Spain negotiated a clear institutional break with the past and Europe embraced the new democratic regime in Madrid and aided its consolidation with a massive transfer of funds.

Will Cuba follow Portugal or Spain? Much will depend on the good sense of Latin American governments, Brazil in particular, as well as the Europeans. It is time in fact to create a new and high-level "Friends of Cuba" group; if only to indicate to the U.S. that the age of American unilateralism over Cuba is over. Castro has played his card. He will be observing the consequences attentively.

KENNETH MAXWELL is a weekly op-ed columnist (every Thursday) for Folha de São Paulo, Brazil's leading newspaper.