By: KENNETH MAXWELL

Folha de São Paulo - Op-ed section - page A2   

Two big milestones were barely noted this week: Five years of Bush's war in Iraq, and casualty figures for U.S. troops which passed 4000. Yet, according to the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, public awareness of the number of American military fatalities in Iraq has declined sharply since last August. Today only 28% of adults are able to say how many American soldiers have died in Iraq. As recently as last August 54% could correctly identify the fatality level.

Why so little attention? Partly it is war fatigue. The public has turned away from the war. It is also the result of diminished news coverage. Last July news stories on Iraq comprised 15% of news coverage. This February coverage had fallen to 3%. It is a result of the perception that the U.S. military has been more successful in containing the insurgency. The fall off in press coverage has reflected the apparent success of the "Surge" since January '07, when increases in U.S. troop deployments, and the adoption of a policy of securing and sustaining U.S. military presence on the streets has in fact reduced the rate of U.S. casualties substantially.

But the reality on the ground is more complicated. The U.S. made deals with both Sunni and Shiia militias; not least the long truce with the powerful militia of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadre which may now be unraveling. Mark Danner, the brilliant journalist who has long spoken inconvenient truths to power writes: Take a look at the map of Baghdad on the eve of the American invasion. Then sectarian neighborhoods were traced out in blue, red and yellow. The map was mostly yellow, indicating "mixed" neighborhoods. Today he says "the map is riot of bright color." And everywhere the pale yellow of the mixed neighborhoods is gone, obliterated by the years of sectarian war.

Danner sees the "darkest of a dark vision" for the future. The withdrawal of U.S. forces would reignite a civil war more brutal than ever, with American armed Sunnis battling American armed Shiia, provoking a vicious region wide struggle over the corpse of Iraq.

The truth is that whoever is elected president of the U.S. this November will find the unfinished business of Iraq back with a vengeance and central stage.

KENNETH MAXWELL is a weekly op-ed columnist (every Thursday) for Folha de São Paulo, Brazil's leading newspaper.