# Venezuela’s Fragile Democratic Opening February 26, 2026 ![Venezuela Tuesday Seminar](/sites/g/files/omnuum12451/files/styles/hwp_1_1__720x720_scale/public/2026-02/Screenshot%202026-02-24%20at%2012.50.36%E2%80%AFPM.png?itok=6cOHHPuA) In the wake of the 2026 U.S. intervention and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela appears to be entering a transitional phase. But how deep that transition runs — and whether it leads toward democracy or a reconfigured authoritarianism — remains an open question. That uncertainty framed the latest Tuesday Seminar at the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies, offered in collaboration with the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. Steven Levitsky, Director of DRCLAS and Professor of Government at Harvard, moderated a conversation with Javier Corrales of Amherst College and 2008–2009 DRCLAS Central American Visiting Scholar; Freddy Guevara, Ash Center Democracy Visiting Fellow and former Venezuelan deputy; Dorothy Kronick of UC Berkeley; and José Morales-Arilla of Tecnológico de Monterrey. Corrales opened with a formulation that captured the paradox of the moment: > ### “The dictator left, but the dictatorship stayed.” Maduro’s capture marked a rupture, he acknowledged, but the underlying institutional and political structure remains largely intact. Historically, he noted, U.S. interventions that removed autocrats often dismantled ruling coalitions in the process. In Venezuela, however, the governing apparatus persists, raising the possibility that the system may adapt rather than dissolve. Still, Corrales resisted outright pessimism. “I don’t think the doors are fully closed,” he said. The departure of a regime’s founding leadership can generate internal uncertainty and recalculation. Yet the core obstacle, he argued, is that “the ruling party continues to be afraid of elections.” Without credible guarantees that losing power would not mean political annihilation, incumbents have little incentive to risk competitive politics. For Guevara, speaking from the vantage point of Venezuela’s democratic opposition, the moment demands realism. Until proven otherwise, he suggested, it is safest to assume that those now governing do not genuinely seek democratic transition. “They release political prisoners, but in exchange, they demand legitimacy,” he said. “They free political prisoners, but they still have the capability to put more people in jail.” Such asymmetric concessions can create the appearance of reform while preserving leverage. Yet Guevara emphasized that democratic change will not emerge from elite negotiations alone. Strengthening civil society, he argued, is essential to sustaining any transition. A viable democratic path requires organized civic actors capable of mobilizing public support, monitoring institutions, and raising the political cost of repression. Without that internal pressure, even well-designed institutional reforms may remain fragile. The conversation repeatedly returned to the importance of domestic organization. Levitsky pressed the panel on whether democratic strategy must run through Washington. “Domestic transitions to democracy are possible,” he noted. “Not all transitions to democracy run through the White House.” The comment underscored a shared concern: that overreliance on external leverage risks sidelining the internal civic work necessary for long-term democratic consolidation. Morales-Arilla injected urgency into the discussion, warning that “the window of opportunity is quickly closing.” Authoritarian systems, he argued, can reconstitute themselves rapidly if external pressure weakens and internal organization remains thin. Complicating matters further is uncertainty about U.S. intentions. “We don’t know what Trump wants,” he said. “And Maria Corina also doesn’t know who Trump is in this scenario. How can you act if you don’t know who your key counterpart is?” In that ambiguity, strengthening civic networks and broadening democratic coalitions becomes essential to sustaining democratic momentum. Kronick pushed the group to confront a more structural challenge. Political scientists can outline institutional reforms that would lower the stakes of power and encourage competitive elections, she observed, but reform requires actors with the will to implement it. > ### “The problem is not that we political scientists don’t have a sense of what reforms could be conducive to transition,” she said. “The problem is I don’t see any powerful person with an interest in executing these plans.” Public opinion in Venezuela continues to show strong support for democratic leadership, but popular will must be translated into sustained civic engagement if it is to shape outcomes. Across the discussion, panelists acknowledged the tension between justice and stability — how to offer credible guarantees to members of the old regime without abandoning accountability. “How do we prove that we can sustain a democratic transition and that we can offer safeguards and warranties for the people from the old regime,” Guevara asked, “so they don’t feel that after leaving power, they will lose everything?” That dilemma, they agreed, is central to any negotiated transition. By the seminar’s end, no one claimed certainty about Venezuela’s trajectory. Some saw openings in elite fragmentation and shifting incentives. Others warned that time may favor consolidation rather than democratization. What united the panel was the recognition that Venezuela is not yet in democratic transition but in a contested transitional phase, one in which civil society, institutional design, and political courage will matter as much as geopolitics. As Corrales put it, “While scenarios could very well point in the direction of a deepening of this regime rather than a weakening of it, I do imagine ways forward toward democratization.” Whether those pathways materialize will depend not only on international pressure or elite bargaining, but on the capacity of Venezuelan society itself to organize, mobilize, and insist on democratic futures. See also:- [ Tuesday Seminar Series ](/programs-initiatives/tuesday-seminar-series) Share on:- [ Facebook ](#) - [ Twitter ](#) - [ Linkedin ](#)