# Between Dreams and Reality in a Changing Global Order March 31, 2026 ![Tino Cuellar Keynote](/sites/g/files/omnuum12451/files/styles/hwp_1_1__720x720_scale/public/2026-03/O2A4814.jpeg?itok=BsJjIZRi) At the symposium *Rethinking the Global Order: Latin America, China, and the U.S. Amid Transforming Economic and Political Paradigms*, hosted by the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies, keynote speaker Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar offered a wide-ranging and analytically grounded reflection on the forces reshaping the global order—and the implications for Latin America. Framing his remarks through both personal narrative and structural analysis, Cuéllar opened with the concept of dreams—not only as individual aspirations, but as collective visions that have historically shaped political and economic systems. Reflecting on his own experience growing up in Mexico, he recalled a period when global integration, democratic expansion, and institutional cooperation seemed to offer a coherent path forward. As he noted, “we have dreams around us, and we carry them inside us,” pointing to the enduring role of aspiration in shaping political imagination. Yet much of his address was devoted to examining how those earlier expectations have been disrupted. The post–Cold War moment, he argued, was defined by a set of assumptions about convergence—toward liberal democracy, open markets, and rules-based international cooperation—that no longer hold in the same way. In their place has emerged a more fragmented and uncertain global landscape, shaped by geopolitical competition, technological transformation, and declining trust in institutions. At the center of this shift are changes in the balance of global power, particularly the rise of China and the evolving role of the United States. Cuéllar emphasized that these developments are not episodic, but structural—reflecting long-term changes in economic capacity, political influence, and global integration. The result is a more complex and contested international system, in which traditional models of cooperation are under strain and new forms of competition are taking shape. To frame this moment, Cuéllar outlined a set of core questions that will shape the coming decades: whether the United States and China can meaningfully decouple economically, what form the global economic system will take, how the United States will engage internationally, and whether governments can effectively deliver for their citizens in an environment of declining trust and rising expectations. For Latin America, these questions are not abstract. The region is already navigating the practical implications of this reordering, particularly through its expanding economic ties with China and its longstanding relationships with the United States. Trade between Latin America and China has grown from $12 billion in 2000 to roughly half a trillion dollars today, underscoring the depth of this transformation and the region’s increasing strategic importance. At the same time, Cuéllar emphasized that the region’s trajectory will depend not only on external alignments, but on internal capacity. Across countries, the ability of states to provide security, deliver public goods, and respond to citizens’ needs remains uneven—and deeply consequential. In this context, debates about democracy cannot be separated from questions of governance and effectiveness. As he suggested, the legitimacy of political systems increasingly rests on their capacity to produce tangible outcomes. He also pointed to technological change—including artificial intelligence—as a force that is simultaneously reshaping economies, governance, and public expectations. While these technologies introduce new forms of disruption, they also create opportunities to improve the delivery of services and strengthen state capacity, depending on how they are deployed. Looking ahead, Cuéllar highlighted areas of both risk and opportunity for Latin America. The region’s role in critical mineral supply chains, its position within reconfigured global production networks, and its demographic and economic diversity all point to the potential for greater strategic relevance. Yet realizing that potential will require more effective development strategies—ones that combine market dynamism with sustained public investment and institutional strengthening. In closing, Cuéllar returned to the idea of dreams, not as a form of abstraction, but as a necessary counterpart to realism. While acknowledging the constraints imposed by geopolitical competition, institutional fragility, and economic uncertainty, he argued for maintaining a forward-looking perspective. As he noted, “we have to take seriously what the real constraints are—but not completely surrender our belief in what’s possible.” His keynote set the tone for the symposium’s broader discussions, reinforcing the importance of examining Latin America not at the margins of global transformation, but as an active and strategic participant in shaping what comes next. Share on:- [ Facebook ](#) - [ Twitter ](#) - [ Linkedin ](#)