This talk explains an extraordinary event: how Brazil achieved one of the most successful cases of decarbonization ever recorded, and how those results were later undone. Drawing on archival work, in-depth interviews, and quantitative data, the talk traces the development of decarbonization capacity within the Brazilian bureaucracy from 1985 to 2022. It reveals a new pathway for environmental policy: domestic bureaucrats and national scientists built state capacity by leveraging transnational ties that provided both political shelter and resources for policy experimentation. Over time, these arrangements consolidated the infrastructural reach of decarbonization policies, but also brought them into conflict with powerful economic elites. As elite opposition organized, implementation stalled, yet core capacities remained in place due to a minimal agreement that decarbonization constituted a legitimate state responsibility. I argue that democratic backsliding ultimately disrupted this equilibrium, as opponents gained control of the bureaucracy and eroded state capacity by targeting the global and scientific foundations on which decarbonization had been built.
This event is presented in collaboration with the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs.