Experts Describe a Politically “Homeless” Chile as Public Anxiety Shapes 2025 Election

At a recent DRCLAS panel on Chile’s 2025 presidential election—held as part of the Center’s flagship Tuesday Seminar Series and moderated by Steven Levitsky, professor of government and director of the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies at Harvard University; Alisha Holland, Gates Professor of Developing Societies at Harvard; and Frances Hagopian, Jorge Paulo Lemann Senior Lecturer on Government at Harvard—four leading scholars offered a striking assessment of a country navigating one of the most unpredictable political moments in its modern history. Far from a simple ideological shift, they described an electorate that is disillusioned, fearful, and increasingly unmoored from the traditional political categories that have defined Chilean politics since the return to democracy.

What emerged across their analyses was a shared conclusion: Chile’s political center has collapsed, leaving voters adrift and creating conditions ripe for outsider figures, anti-elite rhetoric, and security-driven campaigns.

David Altman, professor of political science at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, set the tone early. The election results, he argued, do not reflect a society turning sharply to the right but rather a hollowed-out middle. 

“Voters did not suddenly become conservative,” he said. “They abandoned the center, and the only landing space available was on the right.” The problem, he insisted, is not demand but supply: the political center offered neither leadership nor clarity, and voters responded by seeking alternatives elsewhere.

Mandatory voting intensified this dynamic. For the first time, millions who had long stayed out of the political system were required to cast a ballot. As Rossana Castiglioni of the Universidad Diego Portales noted, many of these new voters are younger, more economically vulnerable, and overwhelmingly distrustful of institutions. Their frustration fueled surprising outcomes—including the strong performance of anti-establishment candidate Franco Parisi, who campaigned almost entirely through social media and amassed enough congressional seats to become a key power broker. “What these voters share is that they’re fed up,” Castiglioni said. “And they are willing to express that dissatisfaction at the polls.”

Anti-elite sentiment was another powerful through-line. Patricio Navia, adjunct professor at the Center for Latin American and New York University, and professor of political science at the Universidad Diego Portales, emphasized that Chileans have been deeply skeptical of the political class for years, a mistrust amplified by the 2019 social uprising, two failed constitutional processes, and a perception of institutional paralysis. Candidates associated with establishment parties, even highly experienced figures such as Evelyn Matthei, struggled to overcome this mood. Outsiders—or those who successfully cast themselves as outsiders—captured voters’ attention. “As soon as you win, you become the elite that people want to punish next,” Navia warned. It is a cycle that Chile has repeated in every election since 2009.

Nowhere is this shift more visible than in the centrality of public safety. Although Chile remains one of the safest countries in Latin America, perceptions of insecurity have increased sharply. Lucía Dammert, professor of international relations at the Universidad de Santiago de Chile, explained that rising concern stems less from aggregate crime rates and more from the visibility of organized crime, territorial violence, and a sense that the state is losing control. These fears have become the axis of the election, overshadowing debates over economic reform or social policy. Candidates across the spectrum adopted tough-on-crime rhetoric, but right-wing contenders, including José Antonio Kast, benefited most from the public appetite for decisive action.

The panelists agreed that Kast is now the clear favorite to win the December runoff. His path to victory is paved not by a sweeping ideological shift but by a desire for order, clarity, and responsiveness after years of political turbulence. Yet governing will be far more complex than campaigning. With an evenly divided Senate and a fragmented Congress, Kast will face immediate constraints. Sweeping reforms will be unlikely, and legislative success will depend on delicate negotiations with moderate conservatives, centrists, and Parisi’s unpredictable delegation.

Still, as the scholars noted, a Kast administration would have tools available outside the legislative arena. Expanded “state of emergency” provisions could allow him to deploy the military domestically, while existing security laws already give police broader authority. Highly symbolic gestures—such as visible deportations, crackdowns on organized crime, or military presence in high-traffic areas—could satisfy voters’ desire for rapid results even if structural problems remain unaddressed. Dammert predicted that security, migration enforcement, and a rollback of feminist and progressive social agendas would likely define the government’s early months.

Whether these measures address deeper challenges remains uncertain. Navia cautioned that if Kast interprets a runoff victory as broad ideological support rather than a rejection of his opponent, he risks repeating President Boric’s early missteps. A government that moves too far right could quickly lose public backing. “Chileans want stability,” he said. “They do not want extreme swings. And they will withdraw support from any administration that misreads the moment.”

In the end, the panel offered a portrait of a country caught between fear and fatigue, governed by perceptions as much as realities. Voters are not moving right so much as moving away—from elites, from traditional parties, and from leaders who they feel have dismissed their concerns. As Altman concluded, “Chileans today are not ideological voters. They’re anxious voters. And they’re seeking a political home that no one is offering.”

Watch the complete event recording here.