Latin America Between Powers in a Fragmenting Global Order
As part of the symposium Rethinking the Global Order: Latin America, China, and the U.S. Amid Transforming Economic and Political Paradigms, hosted by the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies, a panel of leading scholars and practitioners examined how intensifying U.S.–China competition, shifting economic models, and technological disruption are reshaping the global order and redefining Latin America’s strategic position within it.
Moderated by Marisol Argueta, the discussion brought together perspectives across economics, law, and policy to explore not only how power is shifting between major actors, but how those shifts are being experienced and negotiated across Latin America.
Argueta opened by situating the conversation within a broader moment of systemic transformation. The current period, she suggested, cannot be understood simply as a geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, but rather as a convergence of economic, technological, and institutional pressures unfolding simultaneously across and within countries. As she noted, “this is not just a story about competition between countries, it is a story about systems under pressure,” pointing to the ways in which domestic and international dynamics are increasingly intertwined.
A central thread throughout the panel was the evolving triangular relationship between the United States, China, and Latin America. Pedro Henrique Batista Barbosa emphasized that China’s engagement with the region has moved well beyond commodity demand, becoming embedded in infrastructure, finance, and technological development. Rather than a transactional relationship, he described a deeper process of integration, noting that “what we are seeing is not just trade expansion, it is the gradual embedding of China into the region’s productive and technological ecosystems.”
This perspective was reinforced by Enrique Dussel Peters, who underscored the structural nature of China’s role in Latin America. Drawing on extensive empirical research, he argued that China is no longer an external actor but a defining component of the region’s economic landscape. As he put it, “for many countries in the region, China is no longer an external partner, it is part of the internal logic of their economic development,” shaping industrial strategies, trade flows, and long-term growth patterns.
At the same time, panelists highlighted the evolving and, in some respects, less clearly defined role of the United States in the region. Mark Wu pointed to the erosion of the rules-based international economic system that has long underpinned U.S. global leadership. In its place, he described the emergence of a more fragmented and politically driven environment in which economic policy is increasingly shaped by national security considerations. “We are entering a period where economic rules are increasingly shaped by strategic considerations, not just efficiency or openness,” he noted, highlighting the uncertainty this creates for countries navigating global markets.
For Latin America, this shift has significant implications. A more fragmented global economy characterized by competing regulatory regimes, shifting supply chains, and strategic competition requires countries in the region to adapt quickly while managing external pressures.
Rebecca Bill Chavez brought the discussion back to the region’s internal dynamics, emphasizing that global positioning cannot be separated from domestic institutional capacity. She argued that the region’s ability to navigate geopolitical competition will ultimately depend on whether states can effectively deliver for their citizens. As she noted, “the real question is whether states in the region can deliver because without that, no external strategy will hold,” underscoring the central role of governance, security, and public trust.
Across the discussion, panelists converged on the idea that Latin America is no longer operating at the margins of global change. Instead, it sits at the intersection of some of the most consequential transformations shaping the international system: the reconfiguration of supply chains, the growing importance of critical minerals and energy transitions, and the intensifying competition between major powers.
Yet this positioning also presents difficult strategic choices. Panelists cautioned against framing the region’s future as a binary alignment between the United States and China. Such a framework, they argued, overlooks the diversity of national contexts and the agency of countries across the region. Instead, Latin American governments are increasingly pursuing pragmatic and diversified approaches—seeking to engage multiple partners, maintain strategic autonomy, and navigate an increasingly polarized global environment on their own terms.
In his opening and closing remarks, Steven Levitsky emphasized the importance of fostering rigorous, interdisciplinary dialogue to better understand these dynamics. He highlighted that global transformations are not abstract processes, but lived realities that unfold within countries, shaping institutions, economies, and societies in uneven and often unpredictable ways.
The panel ultimately reinforced a central insight of the symposium: Latin America is not simply reacting to a changing global order. It is actively navigating and, in critical ways, helping to shape the contours of an increasingly fragmented and contested world.